Typhlosion [Reverse Holo] #42

Typhlosion [Reverse Holo] #42

Pokemon Lost Thunder · #42 · 2018

STRONG BUY
Fundamentals165% Undervalued
OvervaluedFair ValueUndervalued
Momentum+98% Expected
DecliningFlatAppreciating

Market Price

$10

Fair Value

$27

FV Gap

+165%

Our model estimates fair value at $27, suggesting this card is 165% undervalued at $10. Momentum is strong — the temporal model projects +98% over the next 12 months. Only 3 PSA 10s exist out of 113 graded (16.8% gem rate), making gem copies exceptionally scarce.

Value Thesis

Market Price$10
Fair Value$27(+165%)
12-Mo Price Target$20(+94%)
MomentumTrending Up

Gem Thesis

PSA 10 Price$183
Implied Grade 10 FV$280(+53%)
Grading Premium17.8x raw price
Gem Rate16.8%(113 graded)
Grade 10/9 Spread7.6x(9 at $24)

Price History

Price History

Fair Value Breakdown

Base (avg card)$3
Other+$9
Rarity+$9
Character+$3
Set+$2
Artwork+$1
Nostalgia$-1
Fair Value$27

Grading Population

PSA
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
6
1
7
3
8
5
9
9
10
3
Total Graded: 22Gem Rate: 13.6%
CGC
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
3
7
9
8
32
9
31
10
16
Total Graded: 91Gem Rate: 17.6%

Grade Prices

GradePricePremium
Grade 2$30.3x
Grade 3$30.3x
Grade 4$40.4x
Grade 5$50.5x
Grade 6$70.6x
Ungraded$101.0x
Ungraded$101.0x
Grade 7$161.6x
Grade 8$201.9x
Grade 7$232.2x
PSA 10$183avg last 317.9x
Grade 8$252.4x
Grade 9$24avg last 32.3x
Grade 9$24avg last 32.3x
Grade 9.5$555.4x
SGC 10$13212.9x
CGC 10$17617.2x
PSA 10$183avg last 317.9x
Grade 9.5$26525.8x
BGS 10$28728.0x
CGC 10 Pristine$31730.9x
BGS 10 Black$1,435140.0x

Prices from PriceCharting estimates. Verify on eBay for live market data.

Data sourced from PriceCharting and TCGPlayer. Fair value computed via LOGO-CV machine learning model. Ratings updated monthly. View on PriceCharting