How It Works

Data vs. Our Calls

Throughout the screener and card pages, you'll notice some columns have a subtle gold tint. That means it's our estimate — a model prediction, not hard market data. Everything else is sourced directly from recent sales and market listings.

Value Screener

The Value tab finds raw cards where the market price doesn't match what the card should be worth. Every card gets two independent scores:

• Fair Value — What the card should cost based on character popularity, rarity, artwork quality, set prestige, and artist premium. Trained on 3,500+ cards with real transaction data.
• 12-Mo Price Target — Where the price is heading based on price trajectory, volatility, set age, and market momentum. Shown as a dollar target with upside/downside percentage.

When both models agree — fair value says undervalued AND momentum says appreciation ahead — that's a Strong Buy. When both say overvalued and declining, that's a Strong Sell.

Gem Screener

The Gems tab finds the best grading opportunities — cards where getting a PSA 10 or Grade 9 is worth the investment. The gem rating is independent from the value rating because a card can be fairly priced raw but still be a great grading play.

• Gem Rate — What percentage of graded copies achieve a 10. Lower is rarer and more valuable. Below 15% is scarce, above 40% is common.
• Implied Grade FV— We take our raw card Fair Value and multiply it by the current grading premium to estimate what graded copies should be worth. If the implied FV is higher than the current Grade 10 or Grade 9 market price, there's an opportunity.
• Gem Score (0-100) — A percentile ranking combining gem rate scarcity (30%), grading premium (35%), and composite value signal (35%). A score of 80 means this card ranks better than 80% of all graded cards in our universe.

The Verdict tells you whether Grade 10 or Grade 9 (or both) is the smart buy based on scarcity, premium, and the spread between grades.

Grade Prices & eBay Links

Grade-level prices come from PriceCharting's completed eBay auction data, scraped daily. We show the average of the last 3 sales for each grade level when available. When no recent sales exist, we fall back to PriceCharting's estimated price (shown in muted text with a tooltip).

We default to PSAprices as PSA commands the highest premiums. If no PSA data exists for a card, we fall back through BGS, CGC, then SGC — always labeled so you know which grading company you're looking at.

Each card page includes direct eBay search links for PSA 10 and PSA 9 — both recently sold (to verify prices) and live Buy It Now listings sorted by lowest price + shipping (to find deals).

Backtested Results

We backtested the value signal across four market conditions on $20+ cards with 12-month horizons:

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Spreads measure the difference in average 12-month returns between top-third (Strong Buy) and bottom-third (Strong Sell) rated cards.

How Often We Update

We publish ratings as monthly editions — like an analyst price target, not a live ticker. Between editions, the screener shows live market prices against our published targets so you can see the gap move in real time.

Data Confidence

On the Gems tab, each card has a colored dot indicating how much data backs the rating:

What We Can't Predict

Our models find cards where price doesn't match fundamentals and identify momentum. They don't predict reprints, market crashes, cultural shifts, or tournament meta changes. Use our ratings as one input into your decisions, not the only one. Always verify prices on eBay before buying — the links are right there on every card page.