![Umbreon [Reverse Holo] #120](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/178933_200w.jpg)
Umbreon [Reverse Holo] #120
Pokemon Lost Thunder · #120 · 2018
STRONG BUY
Fundamentals221% Undervalued
OvervaluedFair ValueUndervalued
Momentum+116% Expected
DecliningFlatAppreciating
Our model estimates fair value at $42, suggesting this card is 221% undervalued at $13. Momentum is strong — the temporal model projects +116% over the next 12 months. Only 17 PSA 10s exist out of 135 graded (14.1% gem rate), making gem copies exceptionally scarce.
Value Thesis
Market Price$13
Fair Value$42(+221%)
12-Mo Price Target$28(+113%)
MomentumTrending Up
Gem Thesis
PSA 10 Price$982
Implied Grade 10 FV$1,803(+84%)
Grading Premium74.8x raw price
Gem Rate14.1%(135 graded)
Grade 10/9 Spread14.4x(9 at $68)
Price History
Price History
Fair Value Breakdown
| Base (avg card) | $3 |
| Character | +$13 |
| Rarity | +$11 |
| Other | +$11 |
| Artwork | +$3 |
| Set | +$3 |
| Nostalgia | $-1 |
| Card Type | $-1 |
| Fair Value | $42 |
Grading Population
PSA
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
3
7
11
8
25
9
43
10
17
Total Graded: 99Gem Rate: 17.2%
CGC
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
6
0
7
3
8
18
9
12
10
2
Total Graded: 36Gem Rate: 5.6%
Grade Prices
| Grade | Price | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Ungraded | $15 | 1.0x |
| Grade 7 | $25 | 1.6x |
| Grade 8 | $44 | 2.9x |
| Grade 9 | $68avg last 3 | 4.5x |
| Grade 9.5 | $78 | 5.2x |
| PSA 10 | $982avg last 3 | 65.5x |
Prices from PriceCharting estimates. Verify on eBay for live market data.
Data sourced from PriceCharting and TCGPlayer. Fair value computed via LOGO-CV machine learning model. Ratings updated monthly. View on PriceCharting