Magikarp & Wailord GX #SM166
Pokemon Promo · #SM166 · 2016
STRONG BUY
Fundamentals246% Undervalued
OvervaluedFair ValueUndervalued
Momentum+121% Expected
DecliningFlatAppreciating
Our model estimates fair value at $85, suggesting this card is 246% undervalued at $25. Momentum is strong — the temporal model projects +121% over the next 12 months. Only 10 PSA 10s exist out of 1,154 graded (0.9% gem rate), making gem copies exceptionally scarce.
Value Thesis
Market Price$25
Fair Value$85(+246%)
12-Mo Price Target$54(+120%)
MomentumTrending Up
Gem Thesis
PSA 10 Price$37,210
Implied Grade 10 FV$123,018(+231%)
Grading Premium1514.4x raw price
Gem Rate0.9%(1,154 graded)
Grade 10/9 Spread22.0x(9 at $1,688)
Price History
Price History
Fair Value Breakdown
| Base (avg card) | $3 |
| Character | +$33 |
| Rarity | +$17 |
| Card Type | +$12 |
| Other | +$9 |
| Artwork | +$8 |
| Set | +$5 |
| Nostalgia | $-1 |
| Fair Value | $85 |
Grading Population
PSA
1
11
2
7
3
8
4
20
5
35
6
113
7
312
8
480
9
158
10
10
Total Graded: 1,154Gem Rate: 0.9%
Grade Prices
| Grade | Price | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Grade 2 | $24 | 0.5x |
| Grade 3 | $27 | 0.6x |
| Grade 4 | $32 | 0.7x |
| Grade 5 | $38 | 0.8x |
| Grade 1 | $44 | 1.0x |
| Ungraded | $45 | 1.0x |
| Grade 6 | $47 | 1.1x |
| Ungraded | $61 | 1.0x |
| Grade 7 | $108 | 2.4x |
| Grade 7 | $125 | 2.8x |
| Grade 8 | $170 | 3.8x |
| Grade 8 | $210 | 4.7x |
| SGC 10 | $420 | 9.3x |
| CGC 10 | $560 | 12.4x |
| Grade 9 | $1,688avg last 3 | 37.5x |
| Grade 9.5 | $645 | 14.3x |
| PSA 10 | $37,2101 sale | 826.9x |
| BGS 10 | $910 | 20.2x |
| Grade 9 | $1,688avg last 3 | 37.5x |
| CGC 10 Pristine | $1,008 | 22.4x |
| Grade 9.5 | $1,045 | 23.2x |
| BGS 10 Black | $4,550 | 101.1x |
| PSA 10 | $37,2101 sale | 826.9x |
Prices from PriceCharting estimates. Verify on eBay for live market data.
Data sourced from PriceCharting and TCGPlayer. Fair value computed via LOGO-CV machine learning model. Ratings updated monthly. View on PriceCharting