Charizard GX #SM211
Pokemon Promo · #SM211 · 2016
STRONG BUY
Fundamentals230% Undervalued
OvervaluedFair ValueUndervalued
Momentum+89% Expected
DecliningFlatAppreciating
Our model estimates fair value at $36, suggesting this card is 230% undervalued at $11. Momentum is strong — the temporal model projects +89% over the next 12 months. Only 32 PSA 10s exist out of 263 graded (12.2% gem rate), making gem copies exceptionally scarce.
Value Thesis
Market Price$11
Fair Value$36(+230%)
12-Mo Price Target$21(+93%)
MomentumTrending Up
Gem Thesis
PSA 10 Price$113
Implied Grade 10 FV$224(+98%)
Grading Premium10.4x raw price
Gem Rate12.2%(263 graded)
Grade 10/9 Spread3.6x(9 at $31)
Price History
Price History
Fair Value Breakdown
| Base (avg card) | $3 |
| Character | +$11 |
| Rarity | +$8 |
| Card Type | +$5 |
| Other | +$4 |
| Artwork | +$3 |
| Set | +$3 |
| Nostalgia | $-2 |
| Fair Value | $36 |
Grading Population
PSA
1
0
2
0
3
1
4
4
5
8
6
6
7
19
8
56
9
137
10
32
Total Graded: 263Gem Rate: 12.2%
Grade Prices
| Grade | Price | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Ungraded | $10 | 1.0x |
| Grade 7 | $13 | 1.2x |
| Grade 8 | $17 | 1.6x |
| Grade 9 | $31avg last 3 | 3.0x |
| Grade 9.5 | $35 | 3.4x |
| PSA 10 | $113avg last 3 | 10.9x |
Prices from PriceCharting estimates. Verify on eBay for live market data.
Data sourced from PriceCharting and TCGPlayer. Fair value computed via LOGO-CV machine learning model. Ratings updated monthly. View on PriceCharting