Gengar [Reverse Holo] #85

Gengar [Reverse Holo] #85

Pokemon Sword & Shield · #85 · 2020

STRONG BUY
Fundamentals217% Undervalued
OvervaluedFair ValueUndervalued
Momentum+73% Expected
DecliningFlatAppreciating

Market Price

$10

Fair Value

$33

FV Gap

+217%

Our model estimates fair value at $33, suggesting this card is 217% undervalued at $10. Momentum is strong — the temporal model projects +73% over the next 12 months. Only 36 PSA 10s exist out of 210 graded (23.8% gem rate), making gem copies exceptionally scarce.

Value Thesis

Market Price$10
Fair Value$33(+217%)
12-Mo Price Target$18(+72%)
MomentumTrending Up

Gem Thesis

PSA 10 Price$426
Implied Grade 10 FV$633(+49%)
Grading Premium40.6x raw price
Gem Rate23.8%(210 graded)
Grade 10/9 Spread12.2x(9 at $35)

Price History

Price History

Fair Value Breakdown

Base (avg card)$3
Character+$11
Rarity+$10
Other+$9
Set+$2
Nostalgia$-2
Card Type$-1
Artwork$-1
Fair Value$33

Grading Population

PSA
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
1
7
13
8
19
9
61
10
36
Total Graded: 130Gem Rate: 27.7%
CGC
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
1
5
0
6
0
7
5
8
29
9
31
10
14
Total Graded: 80Gem Rate: 17.5%

Grade Prices

GradePricePremium
Ungraded$131.0x
Grade 7$181.4x
Grade 8$252.0x
Grade 9$35avg last 32.8x
Grade 9.5$393.1x
PSA 10$426avg last 333.5x

Prices from PriceCharting estimates. Verify on eBay for live market data.

Data sourced from PriceCharting and TCGPlayer. Fair value computed via LOGO-CV machine learning model. Ratings updated monthly. View on PriceCharting